Consumer reactions to the current economic crisis have reawakened interest in the jointly authored books of writer and historian William Strauss and economist and demographer Neil Howe.

If Strauss and Howe's theory of generational attitudes is correct, the young shoppers of the future could adopt Responsible Consumerism and Responsible Consumption in ways more widespread and more effective than anything their parents or grandparents could ever imagine.

The first signs are already out there - the days of easy credit and 100 per cent mortgages are over.

Now, just like Great Grandma, you have to save before you buy.

Try mending the old before thinking of buying new and buy what you need rather than what you want.

And haven't we already got enough “stuff” anyway - as the rise of commercial storage sheds to cope with garage, attic and spare room overflow attests?

In their books Generations, The Fourth Turning and Millennials Rising, Strauss and Howe examined the cyclic pattern of connections between major historical events and the common generational attitudes of Anglo-Americans who lived - and are living - through them.

Their work brings new resonance to the words of 20th century philosopher George Santayana: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Strauss and Howe argue strong evidence that historical events and generational attitudes reaching back as far as the War of the Roses all follow the same cycle - offering a pointer to how consumer and societal attitudes and actions will be affected by the current worldwide recession.

The duo believe modern history can be divided into 80 year eras each linked to four ever-repeating cycles or “Turnings” spanning around 20 years with the attitudes of each generation defined by the Turning in which each is born.

While the flowery descriptions may sound a tad too 'New Age Pseudo Science' for some in the UK, the core concept is backed by strong historical evidence.

Wikipedia describes the first turning, known as a High, as a period of confident expansion as a new order becomes established after the old has been dismantled.

Next comes an Awakening, a time of rebellion against the now-established order, when spiritual exploration becomes the norm.

Then comes an Unravelling, an increasingly troubled era of strong individualism that surmounts increasingly fragmented institutions.

Last comes the Fourth Turning, an era of upheaval, a crisis in which society redefines its very nature and purpose.

Looking back over the past 50 years, Strauss and Howe's historical event and generational attitude cycle matches the post-war boom, the peace and love of the 60s, the Yuppie greed of the 1980s and the global economic, environmental, peak oil and ideological challenges we face today.

In their 1997 book The Fourth Turning, Strauss and Howe point out that during past historical calamities of similar impact to global recession, the children are always Artists, the young adults are Heroes, the middle-aged are Nomads, and the elders are Prophets:

Prophets (or Idealists) are values-driven, moralistic, focused on self, and willing to (see other people) fight to the death for what they believe in. They grow up as the increasingly indulged children of a High, come of age as the young crusaders of an Awakening, enter midlife as moralistic leaders during an Unravelling and are the wise, elder leaders of the next Crisis. The Baby Boomers (born in the period post WWII to the early 1960s) are an example of a Prophet generation.

Nomads (or Reactives) are ratty, tough, unwanted, diverse, adventurous, and cynical about institutions. They grow up as the under protected children of an Awakening, come of age as the alienated young adults of an Unravelling, become the pragmatic, midlife leaders of a Crisis and age into tough, post-crisis elders during a High. Generation X (born early 60s to early 80s) is an example of a Nomad generation.

Heroes (or Civics) are conventional, powerful, and institutionally driven, with a profound trust in authority. They grow up as the increasingly protected children of an Unravelling, come of age as the Heroic, team-working youth of a Crisis, become energetic and hubristic mid-lifers during a High and become the powerful elders who are attacked in the next Awakening. Those born between the mid-1980s and 2001 are expected to emerge as the next generation of this example.

Artists (or Adaptives) are subtle, indecisive, emotional and compromising, often having to deal with feelings of repression and inner conflict. They grow up as the overprotected children of a Crisis, come of age as the sensitive young adults of a High, rebel as indecisive midlife leaders during an Awakening, and become the empathic elders of an Unravelling.

The Silent Generation (born 1925-45) is an example of an Artist generation - as may well be those born in the period post September 11, 2001 until 2020 into a life experience as digital natives and a global downturn childhood.

Tags:  Strauss and HoweValuesGenerationsThriftResponsibleConsumerismConsumption

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